O que se sabe sobre a alegação de Trump de que o Irã hackeou sua campanha

Trump Campaign Claims to Be Hacked by Iran: What We Know

Trump’s campaign alleges that it was hacked by Iran – though it’s not clear what information the accused hackers actually obtained, if any. The FBI is reportedly investigating the matter.

Here’s what we know for sure: in a report released last Friday, Microsoft stated that it caught a group linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) using a “compromised email account” to try to gain access to a “high-ranking campaign official’s system.” The company did not mention the name of the presidential campaign and did not detail whether the attempt was successful;

On Saturday, Politico published a report detailing documents received from a mysterious AOL email address from someone going by the name of Robert. The materials appeared to be from Trump’s campaign and included a draft of what seemed to be evaluation profiles of the potential vice presidential candidate, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and the campaign’s chosen candidate, Ohio Senator JD Vance. On Sunday, The New York Times said it had received what appeared to be the same documents from a person claiming to be the Politico’s source.

Shortly after Politico published its Saturday article, Trump’s campaign provided a statement to Politico stating that “foreign sources hostile to the United States” had stolen their documents; the statement went on to suggest that Iran was behind the contact with Politico. Former President Donald Trump made this suggestion explicit on Saturday night, writing on Truth Social: “We were just informed by Microsoft Corporation that one of our many sites was hacked by the Iranian government… It’s never a good thing to do!”

On Monday, the FBI announced that it is investigating Trump’s claim.

There is still much uncertainty regarding the alleged hack and foreign efforts to interfere in the 2024 elections. But here are some other important things to know.

What We Know About Iranian Hackers and Trump’s Campaign?

While Trump’s campaign is explicitly stating that it was targeted by an Iranian attack, Microsoft has not been as direct.

According to Microsoft’s report, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been operating a large-scale hacking campaign involving at least four groups – Cotton Sandstorm, Lemon Sandstorm, Mint Sandstorm, and Peach Sandstorm – in recent election cycles. Microsoft says its Microsoft Threat Analysis Center, a department tasked with protecting the company and its user base from cybercrime, noticed that someone “sent a spear phishing email in June to a high-ranking official in a presidential campaign from the compromised email account of a former senior advisor”;

Spear phishing is when a hacker or group of hackers tries to gain access to an individual’s or organization’s digital space by placing a malicious link in a message that, when clicked by the recipient, can install malware on a machine that allows hackers to access the information contained within it. Microsoft said in a blog post that they “notified the targets” of the spear phishing attempt.

While the MTAC report is not explicit about the success of the Mint Sandstorm spear phishing attempt, it describes other ways in which the IRGC appears to be planning to influence the election, including creating fake news sites containing polarizing content on the Israel-Hamas conflict and LGBTQ rights, as well as on the presidential candidates themselves;

If Iran is behind the phishing attempt and if the country shared documents with US journalists, this could suggest an effort to sway Trump’s voters. The former president claimed that his policy towards Iran is better and tougher than that of the Democrats;

His first administration practiced “maximum pressure” on the Islamic Republic. And he ordered the assassination of IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, which was a practical and ideological blow to Iran. Soleimani was a revered figure in the country and a central force behind regime-affiliated external groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria;

Trump also withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal that would have, among other things, eased sanctions in exchange for increased international oversight and the cessation of Iran’s nuclear weapons development program. This allowed Iran to accelerate its weapons development;

What Does This Mean for the 2024 Campaign?

The documents journalists received do not appear to contain any bombshells that would alter the campaign.

But this entire saga is a reminder that online attempts to influence voters, similar to Russian efforts in the 2016 and 2020 elections, are also at play this time. Russia and China are also trying to influence the current election, according to Microsoft. 

These efforts appear to include Chinese programs that leverage social media to inflame tensions on issues like campus protests that occurred this spring. Much of Russia’s efforts seem to focus on spreading disinformation about Ukraine and its involvement with US intelligence apparatus, as well as inflaming online polarization, especially on immigration;

With less than three months left until the elections, we are likely to see more attempts from Iran, but also from Russia and China, to interfere in the US elections.